Except they probably won't get their Covid situation under control this soon. Omicron's infectious, and stealthy enough, that the Chinese Covid playbook that worked so well in Wuhan is being severely tested, with record new cases popping up in several provinces. Add to this the fact that the Chinese people themselves are pretty fatigued with dealing with Covid and aren't as compliant with the procedures as they were before. This signals the Chinese authorities will have to risk some unrest by doubling down on Covid restrictions, or walk back its "zero Covid" strategy and risk making the authorities look like they're giving up.

I think they won't make a go at Taiwan so soon either, especially now that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is making the prospect of non-Western-power invasions less palatable. The Chinese Communist Party's once-in-five-years National Congress, it's 20th, is due in the second half of the year. It's the CCP's centenary, and it's the Congress that could very well see Xi Jinping anointed as Chairman for Life. Against this backdrop, pushing too hard for Taiwan right now just seems like too much risk for the Chinese.