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No, China Won’t Invade Taiwan in 2022, 2023 (Or 2024). This is Why.
It could be a career-ending mistake for Xi Jinping.
Now that Russia has crossed the Rubicon with Ukraine, all eyes are on what China will do with Taiwan.
Jessica Wildfire presented a Chinese invasion of Taiwan as an inevitability in one of her articles.
I understand that a purported Chinese invasion of Taiwan fits in with her doom-and-gloom narrative.
However, the premise merits further investigation, if only because such an event will have massive global ramifications.
I’d like to offer a ray of hope. Unlike Jessica, I think the facts at hand suggest that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is far from inevitable.
In fact, I believe the Chinese have every reason not to launch a full-fledged invasion of Taiwan.
In presenting these facts, I will begin by describing the monumental challenge that any proposed invasion of Taiwan would involve. Then I’ll discuss the internal forces at play that make the order for such an invasion a colossal career risk for Xi Jinping.
Finally, I’ll show how invading Taiwan would represent a massive step backwards in China’s ambitions to become a global superpower.
