This is a really fascinating take. Here's my take.

Xi's primary objective is to establish China as the pre-eminent superpower, supplanting the US. Despite the thundering rhetoric for reunification with Taiwan, Taiwan is probably a secondary objective. And most of the other territorial claims, e.g. Outer Manchuria, Senkaku/Diaoyu, the South China Sea islets (Spratly, Paracel, Scarborough Shoal), come next. Taiwan's elevated status over the other territorial claims comes only because Taiwan negates the PRC's claim of being the "sole" China.

Making any aggressive moves to reclaim Taiwan or the other territories would seriously deteriorate Xi's primary vision. China cannot achieve that status by forcing its will on other states or it will lose whatever soft power it has gained over decades of careful diplomacy and astute investing.

Losing that soft power will have a destabilising effect on Chinese society. China has already extracted most of the economic gains it can from its infrastructure buildout. It now exports machinery and construction crews to countries elsewhere in Asia and Africa, as a means to keep them employed, because of the potential of idle workers to foment problems at home if they weren't employed elsewhere.

Too much aggression means no more dam or bridge or rail projects, as recipient countries start shying away from Chinese money. Meanwhile, countries that have a long history of keeping a wary eye on China - Vietnam, Japan, Korea, India, to name a few - could settle their differences and present a united front against China if they believe it to be a common threat to their existence. On their own, they are minor disturbances to the Chinese - but, together, they could prove to be a serious distraction.

And through all of this, you can be sure that the United States will always be lurking..