Very interesting article, Adebayo.
I know that many in Southeast Asia will cheer on the collapse of the American empire. Because, from the vantage point of anyone who isn't American, American foreign policy stands for one thing alone.
The interests of the American military-industrial elite.
And, to further these interests, America has very few tools: bribery or force. If they cannot bribe the local elites to their will, America will force its ways on foreign countries, whether by military might or industrial policy.
But unlike the empires that came before it, like the British or the French empires, the American empire has no patience for empire-building. Rather, they employ overwhelming force - most notably, in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan - and put in a pliable satrap for a few years. But when the going gets tough, the Americans pull out so fast they can't even be bothered to evacuate their local collaborators, leaving them to an uncertain fate. At least the British stayed to build schools, roads, and hospitals, leaving behind the descendants of the pliant elite to their bidding.
And then they wonder why people are hesitant to run into their arms.
We Southeast Asians have dealt with the Chinese for a very long time. China has never been in the business of building transnational empires in its 5,000 year history, and we don't believe it will start doing so now. Even if Xi Jinping aims to break with 5,000 year tradition by pursuing an empire, the man is 70 years old. He likely does not have many more terms left in him. And Chinese history shows that mass movements do not last long beyond one man. Monarchy died with the Xuantong Emperor, Maoism died with Mao, Xi-ism will die with Xi.
The wisest Southeast Asian leaders would do well to observe the growing competition between the US, China, and Russia, and find a way to extract maximal benefits from these competitors.
I welcome this competition. The rest of the world will likely do better without the USA having the freedom to dictate its policies to everyone else.
